Wednesday, June 22, 2016

My publications on Brexit

Over the past few years I've written a lot on what a British exit might mean for the EU and so with the referendum upon us I thought I should list all my publications on this topic in one place.

Those of you who know me know my own political preference on this. It leaves me in the strange position of hoping that a lot of my work on Brexit is wasted! 

Reports and journal articles


Parliamentary evidence


Shorter comment pieces



Other papers such as conference papers can be found on my academia.edu/TimOliver page.

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Quoted in an FT piece on London and the EU

In the EU referendum, London is the capital of Remain

Multicultural metropolis at ease with immigration and globalisation

...The referendum has crystallised a broader divide between the confidence of London and the worries across the rest of Britain in the face of globalisation.

“Overall, London or Londoners win — in England, in the UK, in the European Union and globally. That is not the case for all Londoners, but overall they are winning in the political, the economic and cultural competitions that take place at those different levels,” said Dr Tim Oliver, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics.

For some British “outers”, he argued, this distant and diverse London itself had become a rallying cry for the need to leave the EU. ...



Monday, June 20, 2016

Dahrendorf interview on the future of UK-EU relations.

An interview recorded earlier this month at the Dahrendorf Forum in which I discuss the future of UK-EU relations.


Brexit: What Happens Next?

An LSE IDEAS Strategic Update on what happens after a Brexit. 

'A British withdrawal from the EU would be a process not an event.This Strategic Update sets out the nine overlapping series of negotiations that would be trigged and the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions would take, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.'

https://medium.com/@lseideas/brexit-what-happens-next-74393bb1f9c3#.md39h7v7q


Preparations for a Brexit VI: views from the EU’s institutions, France, and Germany

The sixth and final in the series of views from across the rest of the EU on how they would respond to a Brexit. This post contains views from the EU's institutions, France and Germany:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/20/preparations-for-a-brexit-vi-views-from-the-eus-institutions-france-and-germany/


Saturday, June 11, 2016

A shorter version of my Harsh Brexit scenario

Published by the LSE's EUROPP blog: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/09/scenarios-new-uk-eu-relationship-harsh-brexit/

What consequences will Britain’s EU referendum have for both the UK and the rest of Europe? In a series of papers published as a collaboration between EUROPP and CIDOB(the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs), LSE authors analyse the prospects for three scenarios – a Bremain, a ‘soft’ Brexit and a ‘harsh’ Brexit. Tim Oliver discusses what would happen in the case of a ‘harsh’ Brexit, which is defined as the UK exiting the EU with a significant deterioration in relations between Britain and other EU countries. The full papers are available here.

Thursday, June 09, 2016

Interview with Voice of America

Quoted and interviewed for a piece by Voice of America on the future of the EU after a Brexit.
Concern Grows in Brussels That Brexit Could Prove Contagious
http://www.voanews.com/content/concern-grows-brussels-brexit-could-prove-contagious/3367958.html


The Brexit Scenarios: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship

Published today is a report by CIDOB and the LSE in which I am one of three authors map out three different scenarios for life after the 23 June vote. I was asked to consider a 'harsh Brexit'.


Authors Scenario #1: Bremain 
Stuart A. Brown (LSE) and Tena Prelec (University of Sussex)

Author Scenario #2:  A soft Brexit
Swati Dhingra, Lecturer in Economics, LSE, CEP, CEPR, CESIfo

Author Scenario #3: A harsh Brexit
Tim Oliver, Dahrendorf Fellow, LSE IDEAS

This publication brings together the papers presented at the workshop “Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship”, held at CIDOB on May 20th 2016 and co-organised with the London School of Economics’ European Politics and Policy blog (LSE EUROPP). The workshop analysed the scenarios of the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership that will take place on June 23rd 2016 and discussed, among other issues, the negotiations between the British government and the EU, the referendum campaign, the internal developments in the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU and the scenarios that might prevail after the referendum. This publication presents three scenarios based on whether the UK will stay in the EU (“Bremain”), whether it will leave the EU following some form of agreement (“soft Brexit”) or whether it leaves it abruptly (“harsh Brexit”). The authors cover the economic, political, social and geopolitical effects of each scenario, attempting to devise the new UK-EU relationship in case these scenarios materialise. They pay particular attention to the political dynamics in the EU following the Brexit referendum and the effects on the European project, as well as on the future of the UK. 



Interview with Radio Free Europe

A long interview about Brexit with the Balkan service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:
http://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/oliver-britanija-ce-biti-rezervisanija-prema-balkanu-ako-ostane-u-eu/27759754.html


A harsh Brexit, the video

A short video outlining a forthcoming report I've written for CIDOB and LSE in which I sketch out a 'harsh Brexit'. Other scenarios include a vote to 'Bremain' and a 'soft Brexit'.  Full report coming out in the next few days.