Tuesday, July 18, 2017

The EU Falling Apart? Theoretical Discussions of Brexit, Grexit and Other Exit Scenarios

I have a chapter in the recently published in ‘Solidarity in the European Union: A Fundamental Value in Crisis’ edited by Andreas Grimmel and Susanne My Giang.

Abstract: The contribution by Tim Oliver studies the theoretical discussions of Brexit, Grexit and other exit scenarios. Oliver starts from the fact that the UK’s vote to leave the European Union has presented the integration project with an unprecedented challenge. What this could mean for the EU has been the subject of increased levels of analysis and speculation, albeit nowhere near as comprehensive as that into what the vote might mean for the UK. One concern is that Brexit signals or could begin the unravelling of the EU, eventually leading to its complete collapse and disintegration. To examine whether or not Brexit will lead to European disintegration, this chapter explores some of the analysis into what Brexit could mean for the EU and then explores some of the theoretical debates about European disintegration.

Friday, July 14, 2017

Presentation to the 24th International Conference of Europeanists, Glasgow.

A few days spent in Glasgow at the 24th International Conference of Europeanists. Below is the script for my presentation on 'Europe's Britain', which is a project I'll be continuing to work on while at the EUI in Florence.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

May's Brexit election that wasn't

My take for the Clingendael Institute on what happened in the 2017 UK election and what it means for Brexit.

https://www.internationalespectator.nl/article/mays-brexit-election-wasnt


Friday, June 23, 2017

Assessing the Value of Regionally Aligned Forces in Army Security Cooperation

While a TAPIR Fellow at RAND in 2014 I contributed to research that was recently published in a report assessing the value of Regionally Aligned Forces. The report is focused on US Army efforts in this area, but there are some brief sections exploring similar efforts by the British and French armies. 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1341z1.html 


Dissecting the Elexit

It's one year since the EU referendum, so I had to say something... 

Britain’s recent General Election and its unanticipated outcome marks the latest chapter in the political turbulence that has characterised the last twelve months since the EU referendum. However LSE Ideas Associate and former Dahrendorf Postdoctoral Fellow Tim Oliver argues that the election was not in fact about Brexit, although it does now leave the timing of Brexit in flux.

Full article here: http://www.dahrendorf-forum.eu/dissecting-the-elexit/


Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Saturday, June 17, 2017

A Bibliography of Books on Brexit

Britain’s relations with the EU and the rest of Europe have long fascinated authors. The result has been a wealth of books on the topic, to say nothing of the media and academic journal articles, and reports from think tanks, government, the EU and other European governments, businesses, charities, NGOs, law firms and consultancies.

Britain’s vote to leave has added more choice. As part of a recent book proposal I had to produce a list of books published on UK-EU relations since the referendum, and I thought it would be helpful to publish that list here and try to update it regularly. I focus here on books and not the far too numerous reports or articles.

I list the books here in alphabetical order with no divisions based on quality, background or political slant. If I’ve missed a book then please email me the details via timloliver@gmail.com Also, please take a look at my regularly updated Brexicon: A Dictionary of Brexit, which is also summarised here.
  • K. Armstrong, Brexit Time: Leaving the EU - why, how and when? Cambridge University Press, 2017, £17.99 (PB), £29.99 (HB), online access also available. Written by Kenneth Armstrong, professor of law at Cambridge University, its analysis is divided into four sections examining the world before the vote, the vote itself, preparing for Brexit, and Brexit itself. Comes with a very helpful online edition. 
  • M. Ashcroft and K. Culwick, Well, You Did Ask…: Why the UK voted to leave the EU, Biteback, 2016, £9.99 (PB), £3.89 (Kindle). Looks at the available data on how and why the British people voted as they did. Published quickly, draws on a wide range of sources, not least that backed by Lord Ashcroft’s own polling, focuses on the campaign and polling, with little analysis of the future, history, or implications for the EU.
  • D. Bailey and L. Budd, The Political Economy of Brexit, Agenda, 2017, £16.99 (PB), £16.99 (Kindle). An edited collection of academic analyses with a focus on political economy, but also some domestic political issues such as the unity of the UK, and the future of the EU. Ideal for postgraduate readers studying political economy and with an existing knowledge of the topic of UK-EU relations.
  • O. Bennett, The Brexit Club, Biteback, 2016, £12.99 9PB), £7.91 (Kindle). A popular account of what happened inside the Leave campaigns.
  • H. Clarke, M. Goodwin and P. Whiteley, Brexit: Why Britain voted to leave the European Union, CUP, 2017, £49.99 (HB), £15.99 (PB). The most comprehensive analysis so far of the vote, with a focus on voting behaviour over time and giving some pointers as to where Brexit goes next. You can read my review of the book for the LSE's Brexit blog here.
  • T.J. Coles, The Great Brexit Swindle: Why the mega-rich and free market fanatics conspired to force Britain from the EU, Clairview Books, 2016, £11.68 (PB), £6.47 (Kindle). A provocative book focusing on the neoliberal backers of Brexit and the deceitful way in which Leave supporters were drawn to an agenda that will not be fulfilled or benefit them.
  • I. Dunt, Brexit: What the Hell happens now? Canbury Press, 2016, £5.59 (PB), £3.99 (Kindle). Written by a journalist in the immediate aftermath of the vote, it looks at the future giving a popular – but Remain leaning – account of what may unfold.
  • G. Evans and A. Menon, Brexit and British Politics. Wiley, due late 2017. Looks set to explain the outcome of the vote by looking at longer-term trends in British politics. 
  • J. Farrell and P. Goldsmith, How to Lose A Referendum: The Definitive Story of Why the UK Voted for Brexit. Biteback, 2017, £20 (HB). An overview of the various reasons  (they identify eighteen key ones) for why Britain voted leave. The book looks back at the history of UK-EU relations along with analysis of the referendum campaign and contemporary UK politics. 
  • G. Gibbon, Breaking Point: The UK referendum on the EU and its aftermath, Uni of Chicago Press, 2017, £13.00 (PB) £6.47 (Kindle). A short analysis by political editor of C4 News looking into what drove Brexit with some analysis of what it could mean for the rest of the EU. Strengths:
  • A. Glencross, Why the UK voted for Brexit, Routledge Pivot series, 2016, £36.99 (HB), £24.69 (Kindle). A short academic analysis of the referendum divided into four sections covering the history of Euroscepticism, the renegotiation, the campaign, and the future handling of Brexit. It focuses on the nature of direct democracy in the UK and the nature of Euroscepticism.
  • D. Allen Green, Brexit: What Everyone Needs to Know. OUP, due to be published late 2017. Due out later this year, the book forms part of a wider 'What everyone needs to know' series. What you need to know is set out in the answers to 41 questions. 
  • E. Guild, Brexit and its Consequences for UK and EU Citizenship or Monstrous Citizenship, Brill, 2017, €54 (HB). An analysis of the potential implications of Brexit for citizenship. Strengths: detailed analysis of issue concerning many people. Weakness: too focused on citizenship.
  • D. Hannan, What Next: How to get the best from Brexit, Head of Zeus, 2016, £9.99 (PB), £3.69 (Kindle). Written by longstanding Eurosceptic Dan Hannan, it offers a Leavers analysis of where Britain and UK-EU relations can go next with a focus on the nature of UK democracy.
  • F. Harrison and M. Gaffney, Beyond Brexit: The blueprint, Land Research Trust, 2016, £8.00 (PB). Looks at Brexit from the perspective of taxation (especially land taxes) and political economy, arguing for reform of both to enable a post-Brexit Britain to succeed.
  • D. Kauders, Understanding Brexit Options: What future for Britain? Sparkling books, 2016, £11.99 (PB), £2.37 (Kindle). A short book, written around the time of the vote and in a non-academic way, describing the various options facing the UK on leaving the EU. Backed remaining in the EU.
  • D. MacShane, Brexit: How Britain will leave the EU, I.B.Tauris, 2016, £8.99 (PB), £8.54 (Kindle). A readable, provocative analysis written before the referendum looking at the reasons why Britain was likely to vote leave.
  • D. MacShane, Brexit: How Britain will stay in the EU, I.B.Tauris, 2017 (forthcoming). Will be a follow-up to his previous book, but with a focus on the limits of Brexit.
  • J. Montague and J. Pick, The Brexit Years: a handbook for survivors, ATWP, 2017, £10.95 (PB), £4.99 (Kindle). A short attempt at a satirical analysis of the referendum and its outcome.
  • J. Morphet, Beyond Brexit: How to assess the UK’s future, Policy Press, 2017, £9.99 (PB), £8.39 (Kindle). A detailed academic analysis focused on the potential implications of Brexit across a wide range of institutions and policy areas.
  • M. Mosbacher and O. Wiseman, Brexit revolt: How the UK voted to leave the EU, New Culture forum, 2016, £10 (PB), £4.99 (Kindle) A short contemporary history written by Eurosceptics explaining how the Leave campaign won.
  • H. Mount, Summer Madness: How Brexit split the Tories, destroyed Labour and divided the country, Biteback, 2016, £12.99 (PB), £7.47 (Kindle). A quickly published insider account of the campaign.
  • C. Oliver, Unleashing Demons: The inside story of Brexit, Hodder and Stoughton, 2016, £20 (HB), £9.99 (PB), £20 (Kindle). An insider’s account by Cameron’s Communications Director of what happened during the campaign. One of the best insiders accounts.
  • T. Oliver, Europe's Brexit, Agenda, due out late 2017. Through chapters written by authors from across the rest of the EU, the book will examine how the rest of the EU responded to the UK's renegotiation, referendum campaign and the result of the vote. 
  • W. Outhwaite, Brexit: Sociological Responses, Anthem Press, 2017, £70 (HB), £32.27 (PB), £29.39 (Kindle). An edited academic analysis of a wide range of issues connected to Brexit. Comprehensive in coverage, academic in analysis.
  • D. Owen and D. Ludlow, British Foreign Policy After Brexit, Biteback, July 2017, £12.99. A forthcoming book looking at the way forward for UK foreign policy.
  • T. Shipman, All Out War: The full story of how Brexit sank Britain’s political class, William Collins, 2016, £25 (HB), £9.99 (PB), £25 (Kindle). A popular account of both the Remain and Leave campaigns. Another good insiders account.
Updated: 17 July 2017.

Prague European Summit 2017

Last week I spoke at the Prague European Summit 2017 on the panel 'Brexit: Bad or Worse?' Other speakers on the panel included: 

Steffan De Rynck, Advisor for Outreach and Think Tanks, Brexit Task Force of European Commission 
Emmy van Deurzen, Director, New Europeans
Martin Povejšil, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of the Czech Republic to the EU 


Chair: Tom Nuttall, Charlemagne Columnist, Economist




Wednesday, June 14, 2017

LSE IDEAS Alumni weekend

Last weekend I spoke at alumni gathering for the LSE IDEAS MSc International Strategy and Diplomacy. The panel was on Brexit and was chaired by Mick Cox with talks also from Uta Staiger and Jennifer Jackson-Preece.


Full photo album here.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Talking Brexit at the Università degli Studi di Milano

Spoke this morning about Brexit to students taking part in the summer school 'Law and Bilateral Trade: North America - Europe' organised by the Università degli Studi di Milano and the Université de Montréal. 



Jean Monnet Fellow at the EUI, Florence

From September I will be living in Florence for a year where I will be a Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute. It goes without saying that I'm looking forward to it. 


Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Book Review: Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union

My review of the new book on Brexit by Harold Clarke, Matthew Goodwin and Paul Whiteley. It's the best attempt so far to answer the question of why Britain voted for Leave.

Full review here: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/05/12/book-review-brexit-why-britain-voted-to-leave-the-european-union/



Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Globalization, domestic politics, and transatlantic relations

A joint-authored article with Brian Burgoon and Peter Trubowitz looking at the state of transatlantic relations. 

Abstract: For two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, globalization functioned as a unifying force in the West. In the absence of a common security threat, the United States and Europe found common ground in a neoliberal agenda calling for the freer movements of capital, goods, services, and peoples across national boundaries. Today, support for that neoliberal agenda has been rapidly weakening across the West. Drawing on a variety of quantitative measures, we show that Western support for globalization has declined, both at the level of national policy and at the level of party politics. We argue that this erosion of domestic support for globalization is closely linked to the rise of populist parties in Europe and the USA. We consider the implications of this shift in the West’s domestic politics for the future of transatlantic cooperation and leadership.

Full article here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-017-0040-1


Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Never mind the Brexit? Britain, Europe, the world and Brexit

My latest on Brexit, published in International Politics

Abstract: Britain’s vote to withdraw from the EU came as an unexpected shock to many in the UK, the rest of the EU and around the world. The UK and the remaining EU now face a fraught and potentially lengthy period of negotiations to settle Brexit. How might this change Europe? And how might it change the rest of the world’s views of Europe? This article looks at how Brexit could shape worldviews of Europe. It does so firstly by looking at the international and European roles Britain sees for itself and how the rest of Europe views those roles. The article then turns to views of both the UK and the EU from the USA, Russia and China. It argues that neither the UK nor the EU should overlook how external perceptions of Europe, the UK and Brexit matter because they will determine the strategic context in which the Brexit negotiations unfold.

Full article here: 
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-017-0043-y 

We need to talk about the London question

In this post for the UCL Constitution unit's blog I consider how London is talked about in UK politics, how we can assess claims that London has become too powerful and distinct from the rest of the UK, and how London’s place in the UK can be managed. I suggest that there are three broad approaches that can be taken to the ‘London question’: the status quo, separating the UK and/or England from London and devolved government for London.

https://constitution-unit.com/2017/05/10/we-need-to-talk-about-the-london-question/ 


Wednesday, April 26, 2017

The Crisis of the European Union: Challenges, Analyses, Solutions

I have a chapter in the soon to be published book 'The crisis of the European Union: Challenges, Analyses, Solutions' edited by Andreas Grimmel. My chapter is entitled 'A Europe of Dropouts? Brexit and the question of European solidarity'. 



Sunday, April 23, 2017

CPAC's Perspective with Alison Smith

I appeared on CPAC's Perspective with Alison Smith to discuss the UK election. I'm on 09:25-16:50 and at 29:00 I became... an outtake. I think my reaction sums up the mood of the country.

http://www.cpac.ca/…/perspective-with-al…/episodes/50431682/


An English Foreign Policy: Little England or Little Britain?

A post for St George's Day considering what an English foreign policy might look like if the UK breaks up. Thanks to the LSE's British Politics and Policy blog for hosting.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/an-english-foreign-policy-little-england-or-little-britain/


Saturday, April 01, 2017

What are the positive to Britain finally triggering Article 50?

My attempt to see something positive about Brexit, albeit with some caveats that I'll be writing about in the near future. Video c/o the LSE. 


Thursday, March 30, 2017

Written evidence to the 'The indispensable ally? US, NATO and UK Defence relations inquiry' of the Commons Defence select committee.

Evidence submitted with Nick Kitchen to the House of Commons Defence Select Committee's inquiry into the US, NATO and UK defence relationship.

In the submission we explore the UK's strategic options which include: 
  1. 'Switzerland with nukes'
  2. A 'pivot' away from Europe
  3. An EU-UK 'special relationship'
  4. A 'global European balancer'
  5. 'Adrift and lost at sea'
As we point out, each option must be assessed against two markers. First, whether they will allow the UK to respond to the strategic risks that Britain and its allies are likely to face in the near future. Second, the way in which the interests of allies in NATO – not least the United States – as well as the EU, may condition their reaction to each option. British decision makers cannot take for granted the way in which allies will react to the path the UK chooses to take.

Submission here. Full details of the inquiry here.


Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Friday, March 24, 2017

European Young Leaders, Lisbon, March 2017

Last week I spoke on a panel about Brexit at the European Young Leaders gathering in Lisbon. Joining me on the panel were Owen Jones and Denis MacShane. Pictures here, c/o Friends of Europe.





Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Lisbon LSE Alumni talk

Below are a few pictures of my talk last Thursday to the LSE Alumni group in Lisbon. Thanks to Emanuel (British Council) and Robert (LSE Alumni group) for setting this up and providing the pictures.





The Political Economy of Brexit

I have a chapter in the soon to be published 'The Political Economy of Brexit' edited by David Bailey and Leslie Budd. Further details of the book can be found on the Agenda website:  http://www.agendapub.com/books/political-economy?view=title&id=24


Thursday, March 09, 2017

The 14 Brexit Negotiations, Report from LSE IDEAS

The process of Brexit goes far beyond invoking Article 50. In this Strategic Update, Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver identify some 14 Brexit negotiations underway - both formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates between and within the UK and EU.

How will these range of negotiations bring the EU centre stage, and do they point towards a 'hard exit' for the UK?   



Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Speaking to the LSE Alumni Group, Lisbon, 16 March

I'll be speaking to the LSE Alumni group in Lisbon in the evening of 16 March. Details below. 

Notes from Brexit Island, a public lecture
Dr Tim Oliver 

British Council, Lisbon  
Thursday March 16th at 19h00 

Dr Tim Oliver is the Dahrendorf Fellow for Europe-North American relations at LSE IDEAS and a Teaching Fellow at UCL. The opinions expressed here are his own. His research focuses on UK politics, UK defence and security policy, UK-EU relations, European geopolitics and transatlantic relations. Educated at the University of Liverpool and the LSE, he has worked in the House of Lords, the European Parliament, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Berlin), the SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations, and the RAND Corporation (both in Washington D.C.). He has taught at LSE, UCL and as a Senior Lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. He is a non-resident fellow at the SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations and has been a Visiting Scholar at NYU. 

Address:
British Council
Rua Luís Fernandes, 1 - 3 1249-062 Lisbon
Metro Stop : Rato


Monday, February 27, 2017

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Foreign Policy and Trade under Trump's Presidency: What's Next for the Transatlantic Relations?

Pictures below of last Thursday's event at ULB to discuss 'Foreign policy and trade under Trump's Presidency: What's next for transatlantic relations?' and to promote the Dahrendorf Forum's report 'New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations'.









Tuesday, February 21, 2017

My talk last week in Malta

Last week I was very honoured to speak to the LSE alumni group in Malta on the topic of Brexit. Some details of the event can be found here:  https://www.gvzh.com.mt/malta-news/lse-alumni-brexit-lecture/  Many thanks to Andrew Zammit for organising and the support of GVZH Advocates, the Chamber of Advocates and the Institute of the Financial Services Practitioners. 



Sunday, February 19, 2017

Seminar "Foreign Policy and Trade under Trump's Presidency: What's Next for the Transatlantic Relations?"

This coming Thursday the IES at the Free University of Brussels will be hosting a discussion on 'Foreign policy and trade under Trump's Presidency: What's next for transatlantic relations?' I'll be joining a panel to discuss the future and to promote the Dahrendorf Forum's report 'New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations' Details below and online (including for registration, here). 



Saturday, February 04, 2017

Fifty Shades of Brexit: Britain’s EU Referendum and its Implications for Europe and Britain

My latest piece on Brexit, published in The International Spectator, the Italian Journal of International Affairs.

Abstract

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has raised more questions than answers, which is ironic given that David Cameron’s aim for the referendum was to settle the European question in British politics. The outcome, which reflected a range of causes, leaves significant uncertainties overhanging UK politics, UK-EU relations and wider European politics. It is likely that the confused outcome of the referendum and the technicalities of Brexit mean that for both the UK and the EU future relations will resemble fifty shades of grey rather than some black and white division of in or out.