How future UK European referendums might happen

Following on from my Federal Trust pamphlet last week, the Federal Trust has published a short blog post by me summarising how I think further referendums on European matters might happen in future. The vote on 23 June may very well not be the final time we get to vote on the matter of UK-EU/European relations. See the full blog post here.

Brazillian coverage of Brexit

I've been quoted in some Brazilian coverage of the UK-EU debate. An interview I gave has been translated into Portuguese. You can read the article in the Huffpost Brasil here and the longer interview here.

Defense Institution Building in Africa

A report I contributed to while at RAND has just been published. 

Summary: This report assesses U.S. efforts in defense institution building (DIB) in Africa and suggests possible improvements to planning and execution. It first defines DIB and reviews some best practices from DIB and security sector reform experiences. It also highlights how DIB activities serve U.S. official strategic guidance for Africa. The report then examines how DIB is currently planned and executed in Africa and describes the range of programs that are available to U.S. planners for that purpose. It also provides a structured approach to aid in the prioritization of such programs. The report then analyzes DIB efforts in two African nations — Liberia and Libya. Finally, it examines how other institutions and countries undertake DIB by taking a closer look at the DIB activities of DoD's regional centers, as well as the relatively extensive experience of two key U.S. allies — the United Kingdom and France — in this domain.

Download here: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1232.html 

Why the EU Referendum Will Not Be the End of the Story

The Federal Trust today published a pamphlet by me discussing why the vote on June 23 will not settle the European question and why further referendums on EU/European matters are inevitable. 

Download here: http://fedtrust.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Why_the_EU_Referendum_will_not_be_the_end_of_the_story.pdf

Speaking in DC next month - Britain and Europe: Is Brexit going to happen and what would it mean for the USA?

Britain and Europe: Is Brexit going to happen and what would it mean for the USA?

Thursday, March 10, 2016

01:30 pm - 3:00 pm 

For full details and registration here.

David Cameron has announced that on 23 June the British people will vote in a referendum to decide whether or not Britain should remain a member of the European Union. Opinion polls show the result could be close. Will the vote see Britain become the first country to exit the EU? What would happen following a vote to leave? Will the result settle the European question in UK politics? And what could the referendum mean for the USA and the transatlantic relationship? 

Speakers:

Chair and discussant - Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow, Brookings and Director of the Center on the United States and Europe

Tim Oliver, Dahrendorf Postdoctoral Fellow, LSE IDEAS

Matthias Matthijs, Assistant Professor of International Political Economy, SAIS, Washington, DC

Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

Philippe Le Corre, Visiting Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings

WHEN

Thursday, March 10, 2016 from 1:30 PM to 3:00 PM (EST) - Add to Calendar

WHERE

Center for Transatlantic Relations, SAIS, BOB 500 - 1717 Massachusetts Ave NW Washington, DC 20036 - View Map

Quoted in the New York Times

Nice to be quoted in the NYT on 22 Feb in a piece by Steven Erlanger:

'Tim Oliver, a fellow at LSE Ideas, a foreign policy research institute at the London School of Economics, wrote in a recent study: “The withdrawal of one of the E.U.’s largest member states would almost certainly be a defining moment in the history of the E.U. with wider knock-on effects for NATO, European security and international relations. This presents a problem for all concerned.”'

Short piece for the LSE's Brexit Vote Blog on my Strategic Update

You can read the short piece here and the Strategic Update here.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/02/19/a-british-exit-from-the-eu-is-not-casually-overlooked-in-international-relations/

A European Union without the United Kingdom: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU

I've just had published an LSE IDEAS Strategic Update on Brexit. You can read it here.

As I argue in the Update, a vote by the British people to withdraw from the EU – also known as a ‘Brexit’ – will have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. Opinion polls show that a vote to withdraw is a distinct possibility. 

The EU, the rest of Europe, allies around the world and the UK itself need to prepare for the wider international implications of such a move. This Strategic Update examines how likely a Brexit is and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security.

http://www.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/Strategic-Updates/brexit.aspx 

The European Parliament and the UK's Renegotiation IV: What do MEPs think?

Fourth in the ongoing Brexit vote blog series setting out how MEPs view the Brexit debate. This posts sets out opinions from MEPs in the Confederal Group of the European United Left – Nordic Green Left and Greens/EFA groupings.  http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/02/12/the-european-parliament-and-the-uks-renegotiation-iv-what-do-meps-think/ 

The European Parliament and the UK’s renegotiation III: President Schulz

President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, spoke at LSE last Friday. Here's my take on his speech for the LSE's Brexit Vote Blog.

In a speech on Friday morning to the LSE, the President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, set out his case for why Britain’s referendum debate should not overlook the wider European and global challenges facing both the EU and the UK. As Tim Oliver explains, President Schulz’s argument that global events and trends cannot be crowded out by a narrower national debate is one we will hear increasingly as the referendum campaign gets fully underway. The Brexit vote blog has been setting out views from the European Parliament, which can be found here and here.

To read the complete piece follow this link: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/02/09/the-european-parliament-and-the-uks-renegotiation-iii-president-schulz/#comment-658

Quoted on the Portuguese language site 'The Democrat'

I was interviewed about the Brexit debate for an article for the Portuguese language news site 'The Democrat'. Read here. 

The European Parliament and the Brexit debate Part II

Second in the ongoing Brexit vote blog series setting out how MEPs view the Brexit debate. This posts sets out opinions from MEPs in the EPP. - http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/02/04/the-european-parliament-and-the-uks-renegotiation-what-do-meps-think-part-ii/