Published today online by the Journal of European Public
Policy is my article 'European and International views of Brexit.' Originally
presented as a paper for a conference at the University of Copenhagen, it now
forms part of a debate section of articles put together by Graham Butler,
Mads Dagnis Jensen, and Holly Snaith.
Abstract: A British withdrawal from the European Union
(EU) would change Britain, the EU, the politics and security of Europe and the
place of all three in the international system. To explore these possible
changes, this article draws on a series of commissioned analyses that look at
the views of Brexit in other EU member states and select third countries outside
the EU. Specifically, it examines and maps out the prevailing ideas of what the
aforementioned changes could entail. It argues that ideas connected to European
unity and integration will define how a Brexit is managed.
Other articles in the debate section include:
Graham Butlera, Mads Dagnis
Jensen & Holly Snaith
Abstract: With a referendum set to take place on 23 June
2016 in a large and important European Union (EU) member state on whether it
should remain within the Union or leave altogether, this year will prove
crucial for all Europeanists. Brexit is a real possibility that both the Union
and other member states must be prepared to plan for and eventually absorb the
potential impact of. Whilst the process of ‘will they, won’t they’ will
continue until the referendum, and even beyond, this level of uncertainty
creates challenges for the existing actors with a stake in the process. This
introductory contribution will set the scene for the ensuing debate, which flows
from the various perspectives that each of the authors have with regard to the
ultimate question of a Brexit. The three editors introduce the legal, political
and economic themes that run through the articles, whilst simultaneously
attempting to map out the trajectory for if, when and how a Brexit may actually
occur, given the differing perspectives in the debate.
Mads Dagnis
Jensen & Holly Snaith
Abstract: This article analyses Britain’s quest to negotiate
its future membership of the European Union (EU) through the lens of Liberal
intergovernmentalism. The article demonstrates that despite the significant
economic consequences of a potential Brexit, party political factors have
hitherto proven more significant in defining the terrain of the debate than
lobby group influence where a cross section of United Kingdom (UK) lobby groups
are either actively or passively in favour of remaining within the EU ahead of
the referendum.
Daniela
Annette Kroll & Dirk Leuffen
Abstract: This article links insights from research on
European Union (EU) decision-making and on differentiated integration to the
recent negotiations about the future United Kingdom (UK)–EU relationship. We
argue that since a Brexit would overturn well-established statics of EU
decision-making, EU member states reacted differently to the British demands.
States that feared a weakening of their position after a Brexit were more
willing to grant concessions to the UK. This largely applies to most northern
member states. In contrast, most other member states appeared more reluctant to
meet the British expectations. First, these states hoped to improve their
standing inside the EU after a Brexit. Second, reflecting deeper structural
tensions, the British demands would have entailed higher prices for these
member states. Anticipating heterogeneity between the other member states, and
thus the stability enhancing mechanisms of the joint decision trap, the UK
downscaled its demands before the European Council of February 2016. In
consequence, the negotiations on the terms of Britain’s EU membership did not
result in a grand overhaul of the EU, but rather in symbolic concessions aimed
at pleasing British domestic politics without severely harming other member
states’ interests.
The ‘hokey cokey’ approach to EU membership: legal options for the UK and EU
Paul James Cardwell
This contribution analyses the potential legal outcomes in meeting the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) demands in advance of the referendum and what they might mean for EU integration should the UK vote to remain in the Union. It argues that there is unlikely to be a ‘quick fix’ to meet the full range of demands, since there is no obvious legal mechanism which can satisfy the demands in either substance or the proposed time-frame.
Unilateral withdrawal from the EU: realistic scenario or a folly?
Adam Łazowski
This article looks at the legal parameters of a unilateral withdrawal and argues that it is in the interest of all concerned that a Brexit, if it materializes, is properly negotiated and governed by a withdrawal agreement addressing all pertinent legal issues.
The ‘hokey cokey’ approach to EU membership: legal options for the UK and EU
Paul James Cardwell
This contribution analyses the potential legal outcomes in meeting the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) demands in advance of the referendum and what they might mean for EU integration should the UK vote to remain in the Union. It argues that there is unlikely to be a ‘quick fix’ to meet the full range of demands, since there is no obvious legal mechanism which can satisfy the demands in either substance or the proposed time-frame.
Unilateral withdrawal from the EU: realistic scenario or a folly?
Adam Łazowski
This article looks at the legal parameters of a unilateral withdrawal and argues that it is in the interest of all concerned that a Brexit, if it materializes, is properly negotiated and governed by a withdrawal agreement addressing all pertinent legal issues.
