Thursday, June 09, 2016

The Brexit Scenarios: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship

Published today is a report by CIDOB and the LSE in which I am one of three authors map out three different scenarios for life after the 23 June vote. I was asked to consider a 'harsh Brexit'.

Authors Scenario #1: Bremain 
Stuart A. Brown (LSE) and Tena Prelec (University of Sussex)

Author Scenario #2:  A soft Brexit
Swati Dhingra, Lecturer in Economics, LSE, CEP, CEPR, CESIfo

Author Scenario #3: A harsh Brexit
Tim Oliver, Dahrendorf Fellow, LSE IDEAS

This publication brings together the papers presented at the workshop “Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship”, held at CIDOB on May 20th 2016 and co-organised with the London School of Economics’ European Politics and Policy blog (LSE EUROPP). The workshop analysed the scenarios of the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership that will take place on June 23rd 2016 and discussed, among other issues, the negotiations between the British government and the EU, the referendum campaign, the internal developments in the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU and the scenarios that might prevail after the referendum. This publication presents three scenarios based on whether the UK will stay in the EU (“Bremain”), whether it will leave the EU following some form of agreement (“soft Brexit”) or whether it leaves it abruptly (“harsh Brexit”). The authors cover the economic, political, social and geopolitical effects of each scenario, attempting to devise the new UK-EU relationship in case these scenarios materialise. They pay particular attention to the political dynamics in the EU following the Brexit referendum and the effects on the European project, as well as on the future of the UK.