Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Quoted in the New York Times

Nice to be quoted in the NYT on 22 Feb in a piece by Steven Erlanger:

'Tim Oliver, a fellow at LSE Ideas, a foreign policy research institute at the London School of Economics, wrote in a recent study: “The withdrawal of one of the E.U.’s largest member states would almost certainly be a defining moment in the history of the E.U. with wider knock-on effects for NATO, European security and international relations. This presents a problem for all concerned.”'



Thursday, February 18, 2016

A European Union without the United Kingdom: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU

I've just had published an LSE IDEAS Strategic Update on Brexit. You can read it here.

As I argue in the Update, a vote by the British people to withdraw from the EU – also known as a ‘Brexit’ – will have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. Opinion polls show that a vote to withdraw is a distinct possibility. 

The EU, the rest of Europe, allies around the world and the UK itself need to prepare for the wider international implications of such a move. This Strategic Update examines how likely a Brexit is and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe’s economics and security.



Friday, February 12, 2016

The European Parliament and the UK's Renegotiation IV: What do MEPs think?

Fourth in the ongoing Brexit vote blog series setting out how MEPs view the Brexit debate. This posts sets out opinions from MEPs in the Confederal Group of the European United Left – Nordic Green Left and Greens/EFA groupings.  http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/02/12/the-european-parliament-and-the-uks-renegotiation-iv-what-do-meps-think/ 



Tuesday, February 09, 2016

The European Parliament and the UK’s renegotiation III: President Schulz

President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, spoke at LSE last Friday. Here's my take on his speech for the LSE's Brexit Vote Blog.

In a speech on Friday morning to the LSE, the President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, set out his case for why Britain’s referendum debate should not overlook the wider European and global challenges facing both the EU and the UK. As Tim Oliver explains, President Schulz’s argument that global events and trends cannot be crowded out by a narrower national debate is one we will hear increasingly as the referendum campaign gets fully underway. The Brexit vote blog has been setting out views from the European Parliament, which can be found here and here.

To read the complete piece follow this link: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/02/09/the-european-parliament-and-the-uks-renegotiation-iii-president-schulz/#comment-658



Friday, February 05, 2016

Quoted on the Portuguese language site 'The Democrat'

I was interviewed about the Brexit debate for an article for the Portuguese language news site 'The Democrat'. Read here


Thursday, February 04, 2016

Saturday, January 23, 2016

The UK needs a devolved government for London

A piece for Democratic Audit on the place of London in the UK: http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=19057 

London is the UK’s undiscovered country and it is time we recognised it as the UK’s fifth constituent part by granting it the devolved political powers it deserves. As Tim Oliver argues, London’s size, unique population, economy, politics, identity, society, place in the UK, Europe and the world all add up to make it stand apart from any other part of the Union. A devolved government for London would more than any other constitutional change help to rebalance the UK towards a federal union. It would give the metropolis the freedom to develop as it needs and be a big step towards reforming an unsustainable and unhealthily centralised UK and English state.

Continues here

Thursday, January 14, 2016

British foreign policy and the EU: European integration has long had a security side to it

Piece below published first by the LSE's International Security Society and then by the LSE's Brexit Vote Blog.

"Britain’s security has long been shaped by its EU membership. Joining the European Economic Community in 1973 was, in part, a step forward for the security and stability it then offered. According to Tim Oliver, this hold true also today, when the UK is confronted with a very real possibility of a Brexit, with all its international repercussions. ... "




'Foreign Policy of Britain' in 'Global Perspectives on Foreign Policy of Major Powers' by Ajit M. Banerjee (Ed.)

I have a chapter - 'Foreign Policy of Britain' - in the recently launched 'Global Perspectives on Foreign Policy of Major Powers' edited by Dr. Ajit M. Banerjee. Full contents below. Details of the book can be found here. Thanks to Dr Banerjee for putting together such a great book. 


About the Book

The world has become increasingly armed due to the forces of terrorism, threat of ISIS, and cyber attacks. The strategic issues of foreign policy have emerged as a predominant subject at the nation-state level. The end of Cold War did reduce the threat of  annihilation, yet a few countries are still eager to start an arms race, making the world more dangerous. Major conflicts could break out with devastating consequences. 
 
This is the first book in one volume on foreign policy and diplomacy focusing on a composite set of major powers, contributed by eminent practitioners and scholars to serve as an authentic source for study and reflection, ideally suited for foreign policy analysts, international business, and graduate students.
 
Individual chapters serve as a roadmap to understanding forces which are moving forward to promote and safeguard their national interest within the international community.  Using a flexible framework, leading specialists discuss the strategies employed by major powers, as well as emerging powers to accommodate the rapid global changes. Each chapter describes a discrete context of foreign policy development and adaption, and collectively they summarise a benchmark of global polices in this changing era.   

Contents

Foreword

Preface

Acknowledgements

Introduction


1.The Case for Pragmatic Idealism: Foreign Policy and 
   International Relations

    James Baker

2.Foreign Policy of Britain
    Tim Oliver

3.The Foreign Policy of the Great Powers: Russia
    Jeffrey Mankoff

4.Changes and Continuities in Chinese Foreign Policy 
   and Policymaking

    Quansheng Zhao

5.The End of French Europe?
    Steven Philip Kramer

6.Germany: From the Ashes of War to the Centre of 
   Power in Europe

    Dieter M. Dettke

7.The Foreign Policy of Japan as a Global Power
    Takashi Inoguchi

8.India’s Foreign Policy
    Rohan Mukherjee

9.Strategic Vision of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
    Sartaj Aziz

10.Neighbours Without Fences: India and Pakistan
    Aparna Pande

11.Foreign Policy of Saudi Arabia
    Natana J. DeLong-Bas

12.Israel’s Foreign Policy
    Yoav Tenenbaum

13.The Brazilian Contemporary Foreign Policy: Challenges
     in the 21st Century

     Leila Bijos

14.Foreign Policy of Major States: South Africa
    Tseliso Thipanyane


Annexure: Economic and Social Profile of Major Powers.
 
Selected Bibliography
 
Index.

Friday, December 18, 2015

The dog that hasn't barked: the European Parliament and the Brexit debate

The LSE's Brexit vote blog began today a series of posts compiled by me in which MEPs outline what role they think the European Parliament will play in the UK-EU renegotiation and any Brexit.

The European Parliament and the UK’s renegotiation: what do MEPs think?

Debates about the future of UK-EU relations have paid little attention to the European Parliament. There have been no studies comparable to those that have looked into how member states view therenegotiation or might respond to a BrexitMedia reports indicate that the European Commission taskforce handling the UK renegotiation has even looked into ways of avoiding the Parliament becoming involved. Whether or not the Parliament will have any say in the renegotiation, it is clear that if Britain votes to withdraw then the EU Treaty’s withdrawal procedure guarantees the Parliament a say in any deal over an exit and a new UK-EU relationship. 

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Book review of 'British Generals in Blair's Wars' and 'High Command'

The following book review will appear in Political Studies Review, Vol. 14, No. 3, August 2016.

British Generals in Blair'sWars by Jonathan Bailey, Richard Iron and Hew Strachan (eds). Farnham: Farnham, 2013. 385pp., £19.95 (p/b), ISBN 978 1 4094 3736 9

High Command: British MilitaryLeadership in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars by Christopher L. Elliott. London: C Hurst & Co, 2015. 288pp., £25.00 (h/b), ISBN 9781849044608

In the time that Britain has been awaiting the outcome of the Chilcott Inquiry a plethora of books has emerged to serve as primers to the report into Britain’s role in the Iraq War. High Command and British Generals in Blair’s Wars are two members of this growing collection of works written by the former soldiers, politicians and civil servants who played a part in Britain’s involvement in the post-9/11 conflicts. Linking the books, both products of Oxford University’s ‘Changing Character of War programme’, is an attempt to get to grips with how Britain, and in particular the British Army, found themselves in the mess they did in both Iraq and Afghanistan. In neither conflict were Britain’s strategic ends, ways and means clearly defined or adequately provided for. As both books argue, this was not simply the result of failings by Prime Minister Tony Blair or other individuals such as senior officers and civil servants. Their failings were part of a dysfunctional relationship within and between the political and operational levels of these conflicts. The result was that on a good day all that Britain and her military could do was muddle through. On the bad days – of which there were many – it led to unnecessary deaths and strategic defeat.

High Command: British Military Leadership in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars takes us into the inner workings of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and British military. By exploring such issues as poor management, difficult career structures, laughable procurement systems, sloppy training, doctrine and thinking, long-running funding inadequacies, strained relations with the rest of Whitehall and so forth, the book not only gives an insight into the MoD (one familiar to anybody with knowledge of UK defence matters) but in doing so picks over a political-bureaucratic-military system that was destined to fail in Afghanistan and Iraq. Christopher Elliott’s analysis is of an institution where nobody seems to have been in charge and where senior officers can today claim to have been in the dark over major strategic decisions. While a great deal of blame can be and is directed at Blair, as Elliot points out, senior officers tolerated a dysfunctional MoD that made things worse. These officers receive some analysis, but Elliot doesn’t stick the bayonet into whoever he thinks is most to blame. Instead he sets out each officer’s strengths and weaknesses, mistakes and sound decisions. This is despite him rightly pointing out that no senior officer (or civil servant or politician) has been demoted, sacked, disciplined, charged or faced any other form of official punishment for failings in Iraq and Afghanistan. Sadly, the book’s recommendations for changes have been overtaken by actual reforms, some of which happened long before the book was published.

British Generals in Blair’s Wars provides us with more detailed mini autobiographies of recent senior officers. Drawing on their experiences of conflicts since 1990, albeit with a focus on Iraq and Afghanistan, the book offers insights from 23 senior officers with a few pieces from others. The chapters vary in quality, some better written and more cerebral than others. Given the breadth of experience on offer it comes as no surprise that each chapter’s conclusions can often be more wide-ranging than the narrow focus of the case study presented within the preceding pages. The result is a book that can be read as a series of pleas to future commanders to learn the lessons from an exceptional time for the British Army; exceptional in no small part because as junior officers these authors prepared to play a bit part in a global nuclear war and not the conflicts that defined the culmination of their careers. Officer education (or lack of it), learning from past mistakes and the challenge of adapting to the changing character of war arise throughout the book. Learning requires open and frank discussion, which is not easy when the MoD appears hostile to investing in training or allowing open discussion. It is no surprise that the MoD refused to allow six contributions from serving officers to be published in the volume.

These books, then, are about decision making in conflicts where the political direction was vague because of the inherent ambiguity of most high-level political strategy; where the political, operational and tactical levels of strategy were confused; where public support has been questionable and vulnerable; where the limited ways and means – especially money – available has meant that British blood has been cheaper than British treasure; where planning and doctrine have been dubious, untested or long neglected; where the military’s ‘can do’ attitude meant officers had an itch for fighting which sometimes led them to take the initiative without political support; and where decisions and actions have depended on allies and, most difficult of all, local political developments. Such problems are to be found in many states which have their military deployed overseas, and consequently these books will be of interest far beyond the UK.